India is preparing for higher fertiliser prices ahead of the crucial rabi (winter) crop season after China suspended exports of urea and specialty fertilisers from October 15, a senior industry official said on Tuesday.
China, which had only recently resumed fertiliser exports from May 15 to October 15 with increased inspections, has now suspended the export window until further notice, affecting not just India but global markets as well.
The suspension covers specialty fertilisers like TMAP (Technical Monoammonium Phosphate) and Urea-solution products like AdBlue, as well as conventional fertilisers such as DAP and urea.
“China has closed the export window from October 15 not only for India but the entire world market,” Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA) President Rajib Chakraborty said.
“I believe the export suspension will be for the next 5-6 months,” he said.
India imports about 95 per cent of its specialty fertilisers, including phosphates like TMAP and emission-control fluids like AdBlue, from China.
Chakraborty said specialty fertiliser prices, already at abnormally high levels, could rise 10-15 per cent due to the Chinese export curbs.
India consumes around 250,000 tonnes of specialty fertilisers annually, with 60-65 per cent used during the rabi season, which runs from October to March.
The industry official said meeting demand for the ongoing rabi season would not be a problem as traders have already secured supplies available through global trading agencies , though prices would be affected.
“If Chinese export curbs continue beyond March 2026 then it would be a concern,” Chakraborty said, adding that the rabi season may extend until March this year due to better water availability.
India has alternative supply sources including South Africa, Chile and Croatia, but only for one or two products, he added.
