Global logistics major C.H. Robinson has flagged a growing mismatch between published air cargo schedules and actual available capacity, warning that supply in the market is tighter than it appears on paper.
According to the company, while airline schedules indicate stable or even increased capacity on key trade lanes, real-world availability is being constrained by a range of operational factors. These include last-minute flight cancellations, payload restrictions, and prioritization of passenger baggage over freight on certain routes.
The gap between scheduled and usable capacity has created challenges for shippers, particularly those relying on time-sensitive cargo. Freight forwarders report increased competition for available space, leading to higher spot rates and reduced flexibility in bookings.
C.H. Robinson noted that disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, airspace restrictions, and shifting airline network strategies are further complicating capacity planning. Even when flights operate as scheduled, weight limitations and route diversions can significantly reduce cargo uplift.
The company advised shippers to plan shipments well in advance, diversify routing options, and maintain close coordination with logistics partners to navigate the constrained environment.
Despite the challenges, demand for air freight remains resilient, particularly from sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce. However, the imbalance between perceived and actual capacity is expected to persist in the near term, keeping pressure on rates and service reliability.