Global goods export growth moderated in October 2026 as rising energy, fuel and transportation costs put pressure on international trade demand, particularly across technology-focused Asian economies, according to a report by S&P Global.
Although global merchandise trade continued to expand at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the pace of growth in new export orders weakened compared with August and September, reflecting intensifying inflationary pressures and higher logistics costs.
The seasonally adjusted Global Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders Index, sponsored by J.P. Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, declined to 50.9 in October from 51.6 in September. While the index remained above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, it recorded its lowest reading during the current growth phase.
The latest reading suggested that global merchandise trade was expanding at an annual rate of approximately 6 per cent at the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, S&P Global cautioned that the moderation in export orders indicated weakening momentum in international trade.
Eurozone Emerges as Strongest Export-Performing Region
Despite the slowdown, export growth remained broad-based across developed and emerging economies. The eurozone overtook Asia to become the strongest-performing region in October, supported by robust export orders from Austria and Germany.
Germany recorded its second-fastest expansion in new export orders in just over five years, with increased defence and infrastructure spending providing support to manufacturing activity.
India and Indonesia also registered strong export performance. India’s manufacturing new export orders climbed to a six-month high, while Indonesia recorded a record expansion in goods export orders, supported by improving customer confidence and new product launches.
In contrast, export momentum weakened in several other Asian economies, including Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, as manufacturers faced rising input prices. Japan and Taiwan recorded their slowest growth in new export orders in seven and nine months, respectively, while South Korea registered only marginal expansion.
Rising Shipping Costs Add to Global Trade Pressures
Higher transportation and fuel expenses emerged as a major concern for manufacturers, with rising shipping charges contributing significantly to increased input costs and putting additional pressure on export demand.
“Shipping costs clearly played a major role in the increase in input prices,” S&P Global noted, highlighting the growing influence of logistics expenses on manufacturing costs and international trade competitiveness.
The report also pointed to a sharp increase in selling prices during October, marking the strongest rise since 2022. The increase reflected mounting cost pressures across manufacturing supply chains.
Sustained increases in freight and shipping prices could further weaken global manufacturing demand and production, particularly if exporters are unable to absorb higher logistics costs without passing them on to customers.
Technology Exports Lose Momentum, but Sectoral Growth Remains Broad-Based
The report also highlighted a moderation in technology-related export growth, although the sector continued to record an improvement.
Notably, export orders expanded across all eight broad sectors tracked by the PMI survey for the first time since February 2022. Telecommunications services led the expansion, while healthcare trade improved sufficiently to overtake technology.
S&P Global observed that declining business optimism about output growth over the next 12 months was more closely associated with rising prices than concerns about the broader economic outlook.
The October data underline the growing importance of freight rates, fuel prices and transportation expenses in shaping global trade performance. While export demand remains in expansion territory, sustained increases in shipping and manufacturing costs could constrain trade growth in the months ahead.
For export-dependent economies and global supply chains, the ability to manage rising logistics costs will remain a critical factor in maintaining competitiveness and sustaining international trade momentum.