China’s proposed restrictions on exports of solar manufacturing technologies are unlikely to have a significant immediate impact on residential rooftop solar prices in India, but could pose challenges for domestic manufacturers seeking access to advanced production equipment and technologies, industry experts have said.
China has proposed export controls covering 12 solar manufacturing technologies, including processes involved in silicon wafer production and advanced solar cell manufacturing. The proposals include TOPCon, heterojunction and back-contact technologies, while exports of certain emerging technologies, including perovskite and tandem solar cells, could be prohibited. The public consultation on the proposed measures is scheduled to close on November 15, 2026.
The proposed controls form part of a revision of China’s export-control framework and do not amount to a blanket ban on exports of finished solar panels.
Rakesh Malhotra, Founder of Livguard (SAR Group), told NDTV that India is better positioned to withstand potential disruptions than it was a few years ago, supported by growing domestic manufacturing investments and government initiatives such as the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana and PM-KUSUM, which include Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) provisions.
Malhotra expects India’s solar cell manufacturing capacity to reach around 25 GW by FY26 and expand towards 60 GW by FY27. He said the impact on residential rooftop solar prices would likely be minimal, although the extent of any impact would depend on the final scope and timing of China’s restrictions.
Vijay Menon, Chief Operating Officer of Navitas Solar, also expects no significant immediate change in rooftop solar prices. However, he cautioned that restrictions could affect manufacturers’ access to machinery, technical support and advanced production processes, potentially delaying capacity expansion and technology upgrades.
According to an analysis by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), India had approximately 173 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity as of March 2026, compared with around 30 GW of solar cell manufacturing capacity.
Despite the substantial growth in module manufacturing, India continues to depend on imports for solar cells and critical upstream materials, including silicon wafers and polysilicon.
Menon emphasised that strengthening India’s solar manufacturing ecosystem would require expanding domestic capabilities across the entire value chain, including cells, wafers, ingots, polysilicon and manufacturing equipment.
He identified 2027 as a potentially important milestone for improving domestic solar cell availability, provided projects currently under development are commissioned and achieve stable production. However, building indigenous capabilities in polysilicon, manufacturing equipment and intellectual property could take beyond 2030.
Malhotra also highlighted inverter technology as an area requiring greater domestic manufacturing attention, stressing the need to develop indigenous design capabilities and establish manufacturing facilities at scale.
On the research and development front, Menon recommended that solar manufacturers allocate around 2-3 per cent of their annual revenue to R&D. He also called for government support through shared laboratories, pilot production lines and stronger industry-academia partnerships.
Key research priorities, he said, should include TOPCon and back-contact solar cells, perovskite-silicon tandem technologies, indigenous manufacturing equipment and critical materials.
The proposed Chinese export controls are therefore unlikely to translate into an immediate increase in rooftop solar installation costs in India. However, they underline the strategic importance of reducing import dependence, strengthening domestic technology development and building a self-reliant solar manufacturing ecosystem across the entire value chain.