Airbus anticipates that 2,470 freighters will enter the industry over the next twenty years, comprising 940 new-builds and 1,530 conversions, down from its earlier projection of 2,510 freighters.
The European manufacturer has also revised its forecast for cargo demand growth from 2024 to 2044 to 3.1% annually, down from its previous projection of 3.2%, says the latest update of the Global Market Forecast.
Airbus foresees the global freighter fleet expanding from 2,220 to 3,360 aircraft by 2043, supported by a higher retention of current aircraft around 890, up from the previous estimate of 720.
The demand has tilted towards larger freighters capable of carrying 80 tonnes or more, totaling 620 aircraft, while interest in smaller singleaisle models with payloads ranging from 10 to 40 tonnes is projected to reach 970 aircraft, mentions the report.
World trade is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 3.1 percent and GDP at 2.6 percent from 2023 to 2024, according to Airbus. This contrasts with the 4.1 percent growth in trade and 2.9 percent growth in GDP observed from 2003 to 2023.
The overall cargo market is expected to reach 525 billion freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) in 2043 compared to 245 billion FTK last year.