US President Donald Trump’s push towards fossil fuel production is unlikely to impact India’s energy transition goals but may affect the country’s green export market, which depends entirely on the US.
In one of his first orders after his presidential inauguration on January 20, Trump declared a national energy emergency, encouraging fossil fuel production.
The US administration has also stopped funding the Inflation Reduction Act, 2022, a US federal law that aims to invest in domestic energy production while promoting clean energy .
In the last few years, the US’s share of India’s solar photovoltaic (PV) module exports has increased. In 2022, the US accounted for 95 percent of the total $553 million module exports from India, which tripled to $1,788 million in 2023, forming 98.4 percent of India’s module exports. The country was the fifth largest supplier to the US in 2023.
In the first 11 months of 2024, the US accounted for 98 percent of India’s $1,442 million in exports.
India will not be the only country affected by the US’s pullback on green energy.
Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia are also likely to be impacted by the US pivot.
Nearly three-fourths of Vietnam’s exports of solar PV modules were headed to the US. The North American major had an 86 percent share of Malaysia’s exports, 99 percent of Cambodia’s exports of PV modules, and 96 percent of Thailand’s exports.
The US had a 31 percent share in the global import of modules, with the European Union (EU) accounting for another third.
Except for China, most of EU’s exports were from European partners. China was also the primary player in the EU market, accounting for 71 percent of the region’s imports.
However, the impact on India’s and other countries’ exports will also depend on Trump’s ability to curb solar.
Ironically, America’s renewable energy generation increased at one of the fastest paces during Donald Trump’s first term in office, according to an earlier analysis.
The share of renewable in total electricity generation rose from 14.9 percent in 2016 to 19.5 percent in 2020.