Geopolitical tensions, disruptions to key shipping routes and rising vessel deliveries are expected to weigh on the global dry bulk market over the next two years, with supply growth likely to outpace demand in both 2027 and 2028, according to BIMCO.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary source of uncertainty for the market, while attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea have added further risks to global shipping and commodity flows.
“Geopolitical disruptions continue to cloud the dry bulk market outlook. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. At the same time, attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea have added further risks,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Around 4% of global dry bulk demand normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Although alternative routes have helped cushion the impact of the disruption, they have not fully compensated for the loss of pre-war volumes. The disruption has also affected energy and fertiliser supplies, with potential consequences for global economic growth and food security.
To assess the potential impact, BIMCO has developed two market forecast scenarios: a ‘SoH closed’ scenario, which assumes that the strait remains effectively closed throughout 2027 and 2028, and a ‘SoH open’ scenario, which assumes unrestricted vessel transit from 2027 onwards.
“We expect the dry bulk supply/demand balance to gradually weaken in 2027 and 2028, although from a high baseline. Cargo volume growth is expected to be limited, while ship deliveries accelerate, particularly in the capesize segment,” Gouveia said.
Dry bulk demand growth to lag fleet expansion
Under the ‘SoH closed’ scenario, BIMCO forecasts global dry bulk ship demand to grow by 0.5-2.5% in 2027, compared with fleet supply growth of 3-4%.
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, both demand and supply growth are expected to be approximately one percentage point higher.
In the reopening scenario, demand for commodities other than coal is expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and stronger import requirements from countries in the Persian Gulf. However, the return of bulk carriers currently trapped in the Gulf, combined with the possibility of higher sailing speeds, would also add to vessel supply.
For 2028, BIMCO expects ship demand growth to remain at 0.5-2.5% under both scenarios, while fleet supply is projected to expand by 3-4%.
Cargo volume growth is likely to remain subdued, partly due to declining coal shipments. The return of bulk carriers to the Panama Canal could also limit growth in average sailing distances, affecting overall vessel demand.
Rising deliveries to drive fleet growth
On the supply side, increased newbuilding deliveries are expected to drive fleet expansion over the forecast period, despite an anticipated rise in ship recycling.
Average sailing speeds are also projected to decline slightly as market conditions soften, potentially moderating effective vessel supply.
BIMCO has also identified continued disruptions to Black Sea shipping as an additional downside risk to its outlook.
The current forecast assumes that Russian and Ukrainian grain volumes that could not be shipped in 2026 will be exported in 2027. However, if these volumes remain unavailable, global dry bulk cargo growth could be up to 0.5 percentage points lower in 2027, while grain shipment growth could decline by as much as four percentage points.
The outlook highlights the growing influence of geopolitical developments on global dry bulk trade, with the balance between commodity demand, vessel availability and fleet expansion likely to shape market conditions through 2028.