Brazilian aerospace multinational Embraer forecasts the delivery of over 600 new freighters under 20-tonne payload by 2043 in its latest market outlook for the next two decades, expanding the fleet from 400 freighters in 2024 to 630 by 2043.
Embraer anticipates a promising future for the cargo market, according to its 20-Year Market Outlook launched at the Farnborough International Airshow. With projected GDP growth of 2.5 percent, cargo traffic is seen increasing by 3.6 percent annually from 2024 to 2043.
E-commerce is one of the driving forces incentivising the air freight industry, according to Embraer. Worldwide e-commerce sales surged 72 percent from 2019 to 2023 and is projected to grow another 40 percent by 2027, reaching an estimated $8 trillion, it mentions.
Embraer says the sudden influx of capacity, combined with the return of commercial aircraft belly space post-pandemic and the volatile demand due to geopolitical trade tensions, led to overcapacity in the cargo market beginning in the second half of 2022.
“Despite the glut, there are emerging opportunities for smaller freighters to satisfy the tremendous growth in e-commerce. Those aircraft can feed main cargo hubs, linking smaller-demand markets faster and more cost effectively, with just the right capacity and frequency than larger narrow and wide body jets.”
It also notes that the air cargo industry consistently encounters demand fluctuations, driven primarily by geopolitical and economic forces.
Adapting to this dynamic environment is crucial for its success.
Three regions – Asia, North America, and Europe – are the largest markets. Combined, they accounted for 81 percent of all freight tonne kilometres (FTKs) in 2023.
Under its E-Freighter programme, the company is converting its existing E-Jets passenger aircraft into dedicated cargo planes. The programme specifically focuses on transforming the E190 and E195 models into the E190F and E195F freighters, respectively.
Embraer’s latest aircraft, the 190F E-Freighter, has been certified by the National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil (ANAC) and is on display at the Farnborough Airshow 2024.