India may reduce its imports of Russian crude oil following the end of a US waiver regime, potentially signalling a shift in its energy sourcing strategy amid evolving geopolitical and trade dynamics. Industry sources said refiners are reassessing procurement plans as external policy pressures and compliance considerations come into sharper focus.
Oil importers in India have increasingly relied on discounted Russian crude over the past two years to manage energy costs. However, analysts said the expiry of the waiver could introduce new constraints, including financing challenges, shipping insurance costs and potential trade restrictions linked to secondary sanctions risks.
Refiners are expected to diversify supply sources, with greater attention on the Middle East, West Africa and the Americas to maintain energy security and pricing stability. Officials have not confirmed any abrupt policy shift but acknowledged that procurement decisions are being closely monitored in line with global developments.
Energy market experts said any significant reduction in Russian oil imports could reshape trade flows and impact freight patterns, though they added that India is likely to maintain a balanced approach to ensure both affordability and supply security.