India will continue to be a dominant force in global rice trade, exporting around 18 million tonnes of rice in 2024-25, an increase of nearly 2 million tonnes from the previous year, according to projections released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA forecasts that India’s rice shipments will still fall short of the record 22 million tonnes exported in 2021-22 before the country imposed certain export curbs.
India’s commanding rice exports will account for a substantial share of worldwide trade, which the USDA estimates will reach 53.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, up slightly from the prior year but lower than pre-restriction levels.
On the global supply side, the USDA expects record total rice production of 527.6 million tonnes, driven by crop increases in India, China, Bangladesh and Indonesia that will offset lower beginning stocks.
World consumption is also projected to hit an all-time high of 526.4 million tonnes, buoyed by greater use in India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Bangladesh despite a drop in China.
“With production and consumption gains forecast in many of the same countries, global trade is only projected to rise marginally,” the USDA stated, noting India’s continued export policies will remain a headwind.