India and Vietnam have emerged as the biggest beneficiaries of the ongoing shifts in global supply chains, as multinational corporations adopt a “China+1” strategy to diversify their manufacturing bases beyond China, according to a report by equity research and rating firm Nomura.
The report estimates that this supply chain diversification should boost India’s exports from USD 431 billion in 2023 to USD 835 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10 per cent.
Nomura’s observations are based on empirical evidence from top-down data and a bottom-up survey of around 130 companies pursuing a China+1 strategy.
India’s gains are partly attributed to its large domestic consumer market and a robust pipeline of projects across industries such as electronics (including smartphones), automobiles, capital goods, and semiconductor assembly and testing.
“A majority of the investments into India are from US companies and developed Asia,” the report noted.
Nomura highlighted several sectors in India that are poised to benefit from this trend, including electronics, semiconductors, autos, solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and defence.
“As corporate capital expenditure picks up, we believe the Indian corporate sector can sustain 12-17 per cent earnings growth in the medium term,” Nomura stated in the report.
Vietnam, another emerging manufacturing hub in Asia, is also expected to be a significant beneficiary of the supply chain diversification away from China.
The Nomura report underscores the ongoing shifts in global supply chains, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, rising labour costs in China, and the need for greater supply chain resilience in the wake of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.