India’s crude oil imports experienced a decline in June 2024, averaging 4.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), following strong levels in the previous two months. This dip in imports aligns with global trends as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised the world oil demand growth forecast downward by 135 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) for 2024, now standing at 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). The revision reflects
actual data from the first and second quarters of 2024, along with softer demand expectations from China.
OPEC’s report also highlights that India’s economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.6% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. However, the global oil demand outlook has been moderated due to China’s slower-than-expected economic performance. In addition, India’s product imports dropped by 8% month-on-month in June, primarily due to lower liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) inflows.
The broader global market saw a mixed reaction with the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rising by 1.5% month-on-month to average $84.43 per barrel in July 2024. Despite the fluctuations in global oil prices, India’s import patterns appear to be in line with seasonal trends and broader economic indicators.
The report suggests that non-OECD countries, including India, will drive the majority of the oil demand growth, contributing around 1.9 mb/d in 2024.
However, the outlook remains cautious, given the geopolitical uncertainties and economic variables influencing global oil markets.