US consultancy AlixPartners has suggested that, as THE Alliance would be the weakest box shipping grouping after Hapag-Lloyd’s departure next year, it should investigate a tie-up with MSC to stay competitive.
MSC will operate alone after Maersk breaks up the 2M Alliance to join with Hapag to form the Gemini Cooperation next February.
The remaining THEA members, ONE, HMM and Yang Ming, will have a combined capacity of just 2.5m teu without Hapag and may need a new member to stay competitive.
However, last week, the Ocean Alliance members, CMA CGM, Cosco and Evergreen, announced they were extending their cooperation to 2032, precluding any likelihood of any of them jumping ship to join THE Alliance.
In its 2024 container shipping report, AlixPartners says: “The Ocean Alliance’s somewhat surprising announcement of continued cooperation will require a strategy shift for the remaining members of THE Alliance, or a potential VSA between THE Alliance and MSC.
“If MSC remains independent, the reshuffling will result in four distinct cooperatives competing for volume on the key head-haul trades, which will act as a brake on rate rises.”
And Linerlytica’s latest report, released today, says the Ocean move “cements its position as the largest container shipping alliance, with over 4m teu of capacity, giving it a significant lead over rivals on both the transpacific and Asia-Europe routes”.
The report adds: “THE Alliance without Hapag-Lloyd will be the smallest of the four global carrier alliances and will be particularly weak on the Asia-Europe and transatlantic routes, without sufficient capacity and market coverage to compete effectively.”
Linerlytica analyst Tan Hua Joo said THE Alliance would be more likely to pursue slot arrangements on specific routes rather than a full-fledged alliance arrangement. He explained: “THEA is particularly weak on the Asia-Europe/Med route and that is where they are most likely to seek new partners.”
The THEA members said they would not discuss “speculation by external consultants”. But Yang Ming’s spokesperson did say new arrangements would be announced in 2025.
MSC, which already has a VSA with Zim Line on the transpacific, Asia-Australasia and North Europe-Mediterranean lanes, did not reply to requests for comment.
Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, said: “Anything is possible, but it takes two to tango.”