Russia will increase oil exports via its western ports to 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up by just 30,000 bpd from August, despite expected start of seasonal maintenance on Russian refineries, two trade sources said on Friday.
Russia needs to supply its own market with enough crude oil to produce motor fuels essential to meet demand, but normally local refineries start large seasonal maintenance and cut runs, which leads to higher availability of crude oil for exports.
Russia’s August oil shipments from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk will rise just 1.5% on a daily basis from August plan, Reuters calculations show.
For September, Russia’s offline primary oil refining capacity is seen rising to 3.38 million tons from 1.71 million tons in August, according to Reuters calculations based on data from industry sources.
Meanwhile, Russia’s oil loadings are capped by the state’s pledge to the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations to cut output.
Also as Russia tries to secure enough fuel supplies for its domestic market, those refineries that operate raise throughput leaving less oil for exports, one of the traders said.
Unplanned refinery outages and revision of maintenance plans on Russian refineries may lead to change in monthly export plan.