China’s proposed export restrictions on critical solar manufacturing technologies could pose challenges to India’s ambition of building a vertically integrated domestic solar supply chain, potentially affecting long-term capacity expansion and localisation targets.
Industry executives said that, while the proposed measures are unlikely to disrupt existing solar module production in the near term, India’s continued dependence on China for specialised equipment and machinery could complicate the development of upstream manufacturing capabilities.
China’s Ministry of Commerce last week proposed export controls covering 12 next-generation technologies associated with solar manufacturing. The proposal includes partial restrictions on certain advanced solar cell technologies and a complete ban on the export of equipment used in the production of critical upstream components such as wafers and polysilicon. The proposal is currently open for industry consultation.
Limited Near-Term Impact, but Long-Term Risks Remain
Vinay Rastogi, Chief Business Officer and Director at Premier Energies, expects the restrictions to be calibrated according to technological advancement, with newer, higher-efficiency technologies likely to face tighter controls.
He said existing manufacturing operations should remain largely unaffected, as companies can continue operating cell and production lines by importing wafers. According to Rastogi, the sector is unlikely to experience any significant short-term impact over the next two to three years.
However, he cautioned that the implications could become more pronounced as advanced technologies gain wider acceptance and enter commercial production, giving Indian manufacturers a window to prepare for potential changes.
Ingots Could Face the Biggest Challenge
The proposed restrictions could create hurdles for Indian solar module manufacturers seeking to expand into upstream segments, including solar cells, ingots, wafers and polysilicon.
Ingots are considered particularly vulnerable because China dominates their production and the supply of specialised equipment required to manufacture them.
“For cells, wafers and polysilicon, there are non-Chinese suppliers. But for ingots, the technology is sensitive. So that might have a significant impact,” said Arulkumar Shanmugasundram, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of SWELECT Energy Systems.
He also pointed out that several global equipment suppliers possess the necessary technology but continue to manufacture their equipment in China. Export restrictions could encourage these companies to establish manufacturing facilities in alternative locations, including India, potentially creating new opportunities for domestic industrial development.
Scope for International Technology Partnerships
Amit Manohar, Secretary General of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), said countries such as Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the United States offer valuable expertise in manufacturing equipment, materials and advanced solar cell processes.
He noted that Indian manufacturers could strengthen partnerships with these countries while expanding domestic engineering, research and equipment manufacturing capabilities.
Such collaborations could help reduce India’s dependence on a single supply source and accelerate the development of a more resilient domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem.
Domestic Sourcing Deadline Adds to Uncertainty
The proposed Chinese restrictions also raise questions about India’s plans to expand domestic sourcing requirements for solar manufacturing components.
Earlier this year, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) extended the mandatory sourcing framework under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) to include ingots and wafers. The requirements are intended to ensure that solar projects covered by the framework meet domestic manufacturing criteria from the February 2028 deadline.
Rastogi said it remains unclear how a potential Chinese export ban could affect compliance with the domestic ingot and wafer sourcing requirements.
Meanwhile, Anujesh Dwivedi, Partner at Deloitte India, said a blanket ban was not anticipated and that imports could still be possible after obtaining the necessary licences.
He cautioned, however, that equipment delivery timelines could lengthen. The pace at which India scales up its domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem will depend partly on whether manufacturers have already secured supplies of equipment and technologies that could be subject to restrictions.
Outlook
China’s proposed controls are unlikely to derail India’s existing solar module production in the immediate future, but they could complicate efforts to expand domestic manufacturing into more technology-intensive upstream segments.
The impact will depend on the final scope of the restrictions, the availability of alternative suppliers, licensing arrangements and the readiness of Indian manufacturers to secure critical equipment.
For India, the proposed measures underline the importance of diversifying international sourcing, building domestic technological capabilities and accelerating investment in upstream solar manufacturing to achieve greater supply-chain resilience.