The global air cargo industry is expected to witness significant long-term growth, with the worldwide freighter fleet projected to expand by 67% over the next two decades, driven by rising e-commerce demand, expanding international trade, and the need for faster, more resilient supply chains.
According to the latest long-term market outlook, the global freighter fleet is forecast to increase from approximately 2,340 aircraft in 2025 to around 3,900 aircraft by 2045. The expansion will be supported by both newly built freighters and passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, reflecting sustained demand for dedicated cargo capacity across global markets.
The forecast estimates that nearly 2,900 freighters will be delivered during the period, with new production aircraft accounting for a significant share of deliveries alongside converted freighters that continue to provide cost-effective capacity for operators.
E-commerce is expected to remain one of the strongest drivers of air cargo demand, supported by growing consumer expectations for rapid deliveries and the continued expansion of cross-border online retail. Pharmaceutical shipments, high-value electronics, perishables, and time-sensitive industrial cargo are also expected to contribute to sustained demand for dedicated freighter services.
Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are anticipated to play an increasingly important role in cargo growth, while established hubs in North America and Europe will continue to invest in fleet modernization and logistics infrastructure.
The outlook also highlights the industry’s focus on replacing older aircraft with more fuel-efficient freighters, helping airlines reduce operating costs and improve environmental performance. Modern aircraft are expected to offer greater payload capacity, longer range, and lower emissions, supporting both economic and sustainability objectives.
As global supply chains continue to evolve and businesses prioritize reliability alongside speed, dedicated freighter aircraft are expected to remain a critical component of international logistics, reinforcing the long-term growth prospects of the air cargo sector through 2045.
