German container shipping major Hapag-Lloyd does not expect a significant overcapacity problem in the global container shipping market in 2027, despite a substantial number of new vessels scheduled for delivery, according to Chief Executive Officer Rolf Habben Jansen.
The company expects resilient global container demand to absorb much of the additional capacity entering the market next year, keeping the supply-demand balance relatively stable. However, Jansen cautioned that the risk of overcapacity could become more pronounced from 2028 as new vessel deliveries accelerate.
Container shipping capacity is expected to expand significantly, with newbuild deliveries adding around 8% to global capacity in 2027, followed by approximately 12% in 2028 and 9% in 2029. Nevertheless, demand growth, operational constraints and fleet management measures are expected to help absorb the additional tonnage in the near term.
Jansen indicated that container volumes on major trade routes have increased by around 25% over the past three years, with further growth of approximately 5% or more anticipated in 2027. This demand momentum is expected to support market stability despite the industry’s substantial vessel orderbook.
The anticipated return of container services to the Red Sea and Suez Canal route could release additional vessel capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. However, the impact is expected to be manageable rather than trigger an immediate market surplus.
Hapag-Lloyd also sees slower steaming and increased ship recycling as important mechanisms to absorb excess capacity. The company expects demolition activity to increase as older vessels become less competitive, with nearly 4 million TEU of container ship capacity expected to be more than 25 years old by 2030.
Jansen said the market could become less tight in 2027 but should remain broadly balanced. The greater challenge, in his assessment, will emerge in 2028 and 2029 as more newbuildings enter service.
His outlook offers a relatively optimistic assessment for container shipping in 2027, although the industry’s growing orderbook and the potential normalisation of shipping routes will remain important factors influencing freight rates and vessel utilisation in the coming years.