India’s total merchandise exports are expected to see robust growth, reaching $116.7 billion in the first quarter (Q1) (April-June) of financial year 2024 (FY25), according to the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank). This represents a year-on-year increase of 12.3 per cent. Additionally, non-oil exports are expected to hit $93.9 billion, marking a growth of 10.7 per cent during the same period.
These optimistic forecasts build on the positive growth trends observed in the last two quarters of the previous financial year. Factors contributing to this upward trajectory include India’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and a positive outlook, along with sustained momentum in the manufacturing sector. The expected global easing of monetary policies is also anticipated to spur further global demand, augmented somewhat by the base effect.
Despite these positive indicators, the outlook remains cautious due to potential risks. These include uncertain prospects for advanced economies and possible geopolitical shocks. Moreover, the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, particularly the intensification of the Red Sea crisis, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation pose additional challenges that could impact export growth. Nevertheless, the growth in exports is expected to maintain its positive momentum in the forthcoming quarters, as per Exim Bank.