A.P. Moller-Maersk has raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook, as continued disruptions to global shipping routes and rising freight rates improve the company’s earnings prospects.
The improved outlook reflects stronger-than-anticipated market conditions in the container shipping sector, with geopolitical tensions, route diversions and capacity constraints continuing to influence global supply chains and ocean freight pricing.
The Danish shipping group reported third-quarter revenue of USD 18.1 billion, representing a 27% increase compared with the corresponding period last year. EBITDA rose 75% to USD 4.7 billion, while operating profit (EBIT) more than doubled to USD 3.3 billion from USD 1.3 billion. Net profit stood at approximately USD 3 billion.
2026 Earnings Forecast Revised Upwards
Following the strong quarterly performance, Maersk revised its full-year financial guidance as follows:
| Financial indicator | Previous forecast | Revised forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBITDA | USD 10.5–12.5 bn | USD 14–14.5 bn |
| Underlying EBIT | USD 4.5–6.5 bn | USD 8–8.5 bn |
| Free cash flow | Above USD 0 bn | Above USD 3 bn |
The latest revision marks the third time Maersk has raised its 2026 earnings outlook this year.
Ocean Business Leads Earnings Growth
Maersk’s Ocean division was the biggest contributor to the improved financial performance. Revenue from the division increased 37% to USD 12.6 billion, while EBIT surged to USD 2.6 billion from USD 567 million in the corresponding quarter last year.
Average loaded freight rates reached USD 3,287 per FEU, while loaded container volumes declined marginally by 0.8% to 3.37 million FEU. Vessel utilisation remained high at 96%, reflecting tight capacity across the company’s network.
Port Congestion and AI Investments Support Freight Rates
Persistent port congestion, weather-related disruptions in Asia and geopolitical tensions continued to constrain effective shipping capacity. Average spot container freight rates, measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), increased 46% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter.
Demand has also been supported by increased investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, electrification and energy projects, generating additional industrial cargo movements across major trade lanes.
Maersk said global container demand remained resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty, with full-year global container market growth expected to be around 4%.
Outlook Remains Dependent on Market Conditions
Despite the improved earnings outlook, Maersk’s performance remains exposed to changes in freight rates, shipping capacity and global trade conditions. A reduction in port congestion, the gradual resumption of services through the Suez Canal and the arrival of new vessels could ease capacity constraints and put downward pressure on freight rates.
The company has also cautioned that geopolitical developments, fuel prices and broader macroeconomic conditions could influence its financial performance during the remainder of 2026.
The latest results underline how shipping disruptions and capacity constraints continue to reshape the container shipping market, with higher freight rates significantly improving carrier profitability even as cargo volumes remain relatively flat.