India’s export outlook faces growing strain as global trade momentum weakens and domestic cost pressures intensify, according to an assessment by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) citing the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer.
The WTO report, released earlier this week, signals a clear cooling in global merchandise trade following a tariff-driven surge earlier in the year.
GTRI noted that while global trade held up in early 2025 on the back of strong demand for AI-related goods, the pace is now slowing as front-loaded orders taper off and protectionist measures re-emerge.
Key indicators such as electronics, air freight, container shipping and automotive trade remain in expansionary territory, though with moderating growth, while agricultural raw materials have slipped below trend.
“The warning is blunt: growth remains intact for now, but rising tariffs and policy uncertainty threaten to erode global trade volumes in 2026,” the think tank observed.
“As with the WTO’s global picture, India’s data suggest not a collapse but a clear loss of traction, with trade-policy shocks abroad colliding with domestic cost pressures to expose the economy’s vulnerability to slowing world demand,” GTRI observed.
India’s latest export figures reflect this global deceleration, with sharper downside risks.
Merchandise exports contracted 11.8 per cent year-on-year in October, with declines recorded in 15 of India’s 20 major markets.
Shipments to the United States fell 8.6 per cent, while exports to the UAE declined 10.2 per cent.
The UK and Italy registered steeper drops of 27.2 per cent and 27.7 per cent respectively, and shipments to the Netherlands slid 22.8 per cent.
Exports to Singapore and Australia saw even sharper corrections, pointing to a sudden slowdown in Asia-Pacific supply chains.
Export growth was largely confined to a few markets, including Spain and China, driven mainly by energy and commodity-linked demand rather than any broad-based improvement in manufacturing performance.