United States President Donald Trump on February 6, 2025, signed an Executive Order that sought to reverse exemptions that had been extended earlier which helped Iran gain advantages from some sanctions. This general policy shift now includes prohibitions that would have a devastating impact on future development of Chabahar Port—a key infrastructure project for Indian regional politics.
Originally intended to serve as a bypass trade corridor of Pakistan, Chabahar was the epicenter of Indian aspirations to form an Afghan to Central Asian trade corridor. With the re-imposition of US sanctions, however, India’s multi-billion-dollar investment in its port now hangs in the balance, compromising its overall regional ambition.
For India, Chabahar Port was not just an infrastructure project but a geopolitical act that helped cut India’s reliance on Pakistan, its principal regional adversary. The port was meant to give India direct access to Afghanistan and indirectly Central Asia—regions still of great importance to India’s pursuit of trade growth. Central Asia, being landlocked, was dependent on Pakistan-connected trade routes, and hence India’s investment in Chabahar was an integral part of its master plan.
The port expansion was intended to counterbalance Pakistan’s position in the region along with Chinese economic incursions via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is one of Beijing’s pet Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. In building Chabahar, India politically challenged Pakistan in a straight face. The port was envisioned to be an alternative trade route that would go around Pakistan’s monopoly of the historic Afghan trade route. India’s aim was simple: to make Afghanistan a center of influence, cut off Pakistan’s grip, and prevent China from expanding its influence in the nation. Chabahar was therefore a prized asset in India’s strategic battle with Pakistan and China.
The United States’ move to block the relief of sanctions for Chabahar port has the direct effect of undermining India’s investment, immensely depriving its strategic value. India’s economic interest in the region is now set directly against the American foreign policy, resulting in an uncertain geopolitical landscape. Threats to the investment go beyond strictly financial ones since India has to deal with sanctions compliance issues as well as attempting to safeguard its own regional interests. The very nature of India’s regional strategy has been undercut with American sanctions now presenting a tough decision for further developing progress on Chabahar. Afghanistan, on its part, has been a strong supporter of Chabahar as a bypass trade route around Pakistan but now stands at a crossroads.
The reliance of Afghanistan on India for regional connectivity increased with the expansion of Chabahar, but the recent policy shift by the United States calls into question the long-term sustainability of this alignment. Afghanistan’s insecure politics and changing affiliations make the strategic choice all the more entangled. As a consequence of American sanctions, Afghan strategists are forced to re-strategize and discover it much more convenient to enter deeper into Pakistan, being the sole beneficial gateway for Afghanistan towards the world market. The political wager India put on Chabahar is now even more vulnerable to volatility in world politics.
The port, which has been hailed as a game-changer for connectivity within the region, is now in limbo over its future amidst shifting global balances of power. Afghanistan itself can be forced to re-examine its strategic alignments and overdependence on India regarding connectivity due to Pakistani and Chinese expansion. With the South Asian geopolitics constantly swinging, Afghanistan would be well-served to make an attempt to bridge up to Pakistan, given the latter’s access to the Arabian Sea by way of the Gwadar Port. This is Pakistan’s chance. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is booming notwithstanding international sanctions as well as indigenous opposition. Though India’s investment in Chabahar remains susceptible to sabotage, CPEC has already been protected from US sanctions, and Pakistan can proceed with its infrastructure drive. Not only does the project place Pakistan on South Asia’s strategic trade map but also strengthen its economic connection with China so that its regional power base is secure.
Bangladesh itself is another regional giant country that appears to be self-assured in its investment in CPEC, viewing the project as a safe, value-based venture. India’s own investments in Chabahar, however, now appear uncertain challenges, witnessing the merits of political stability and long-term strategic vision. Indian investment in Chabahar, dependent as it is on uncertain geopolitical forces, Pakistan’s development through CPEC is increasingly vindicating its claim as a pivot of regional trade.
Since India is confronting increasing adversity in its mission for regional domination through the Chabahar corridor, the sustained infrastructural growth of Pakistan seems to place it on favorable ground.
The policy change of the U.S. is a new direction that is reflective of India’s strategic interests and global political forces’ vulnerability. India needs to reconsider its regional connectivity strategy since American sanctions on Chabahar port investment reveal the risk of being dependent on politically reversible arrangements. The future of regional trade in South Asia depends on sustained efforts towards developing strong infrastructure and establishing stable long-term connections.
While India’s investment in Chabahar will be bogged down by the burden of changing geopolitical tides, Pakistan’s continued interest in its regional connectivity initiatives means it will continue to be the behemoth of South Asian trade in the near future. Chabahar lessons are a bitter reminder that geopolitics must be shielded from the vagaries of political turnovers, and Pakistan’s role as the region’s trade hub will only become more formidable.
