Ratings firm CRISIL said that India’s goods exports are likely to face some headwinds in fiscal 2026, as reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US are seen to aggravate this.
With the tariff hikes expected to come into effect from August, India and the US are negotiating on a bilateral trade agreement and a key monitorable, the report said.
The World Trade Organisation forecasts a 0.2 per cent decline in the volume of merchandise trade in 2025 compared to 2.9 per cent in 2024.
The report said global growth is expected to slow down to 2.9 per cent in 2025 from 3.3 per cent.
Growth in the US, India’s largest export destination, is projected to slow to 1.7 per cent from 2.8 per cent.
Accordingly, India’s merchandise trade is expected to come under pressure this fiscal.
However, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stay in the safe zone at 1.3 per cent of the GDP in the current financial year.
The surplus in services trade, a robust flow of remittances is expected to cushion the CAD, the report added.