India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is expected to have sufficient surplus stocks in the upcoming sugar marketing season beginning October 1, 2025, paving the way for exports, a senior government official said on Friday.
“There will be scope for sugar exports in the new season,” said Ashwini Srivastava, Joint Secretary, Department of Food and Public Distribution, while addressing a global conference. Although he did not specify the potential export volumes, Srivastava said the production outlook for 2025-26 remains favourable.
According to Srivastava, after meeting domestic consumption requirements and setting aside quantities for ethanol production, surplus stocks will remain available for overseas shipments. “A record 4.8 billion litres of ethanol from sugarcane-based feedstock is likely in the new season. Sugar consumption is projected to rise to between 28.5 million and 29 million tonnes, compared with 28 million tonnes this year,” he added.
India had allowed just 1 million metric tonne of sugar exports in the current marketing year ending September, as production declined. However, the new season is expected to offer more headroom for shipments, which could weigh on global prices but help the government stabilise domestic rates and ensure timely payments to farmers.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISBMA) has projected sugar output at 34.9 million tonnes for the 2025-26 season, with opening stocks of 5 million tonnes—lower than the 8 million tonnes carried into the current year.
The anticipated surplus, coupled with record ethanol blending, is expected to provide relief to mills and reinforce India’s role as a key player in the global sugar market.