The container shipping market could face a significant weakening in 2027 as fleet capacity growth is expected to outpace demand, according to BIMCO’s September Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook.
The global containership fleet has crossed 34 million TEUs, having expanded by around 10 million TEUs in five and a half years. BIMCO expects fleet capacity to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and a further 9% in 2027, while the containership orderbook stands at more than 14 million TEUs, equivalent to about 42% of the existing fleet.
Container volumes increased 5.1% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026, supported mainly by exports from East and Southeast Asia. Longer voyages caused by diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have also absorbed additional vessel capacity.
However, BIMCO expects supply growth of 5–6% in 2027, while demand growth could range between 0.5% and 4.5%, depending on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the return of normal shipping routes.
A gradual restoration of Suez Canal routings could put additional pressure on the market by shortening voyage distances and releasing vessels currently absorbed by longer Cape routes. BIMCO estimates that a full return to normal Suez operations could leave ship demand around 10% lower than under continued Cape diversions.
BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said accelerating fleet growth is expected to weaken the container shipping market in 2027, particularly if Suez Canal routings resume.