Geopolitical disruptions, uncertain cargo flows and accelerating vessel deliveries are expected to weaken the dry bulk shipping market in 2027 and 2028, according to the latest outlook from BIMCO, the international shipping association.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest source of uncertainty for the sector, while attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea pose additional downside risks, said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Around 4% of global dry bulk demand typically transits the Strait of Hormuz. Although alternative routes have helped mitigate the disruption, they have not been sufficient to restore pre-war shipping volumes. The situation has also tightened energy and fertiliser supplies, putting pressure on global economic growth and raising concerns about food security.
Two Scenarios for the Dry Bulk Market
Given the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, BIMCO has developed two forecast scenarios: “SoH closed,” which assumes the strait remains effectively closed throughout 2027 and 2028, and “SoH open,” which assumes unrestricted vessel transit resumes from 2027.
BIMCO expects the dry bulk supply-demand balance to gradually weaken over the two-year period, although from a relatively strong starting position. Cargo volume growth is likely to remain limited, while vessel deliveries are expected to accelerate, particularly in the Capesize segment.
Demand Growth to Lag Fleet Expansion in 2027
In 2027, dry bulk ship demand is projected to grow by 0.5%–2.5% if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, compared with expected fleet supply growth of 3%–4%.
If the strait reopens, both demand and supply growth are forecast to increase by approximately one percentage point. Improved economic conditions and stronger import demand from Persian Gulf countries would support shipments of commodities other than coal.
However, the return to normal operations of bulk carriers currently trapped in the Gulf, combined with potentially higher sailing speeds, would also increase effective vessel supply.
Fleet Growth to Outpace Demand in 2028
In 2028, dry bulk ship demand is forecast to grow by 0.5%–2.5% under both scenarios, while supply is expected to expand by 3%–4%.
Cargo growth is likely to remain constrained by declining coal shipments. The return of bulk carriers to the Panama Canal could also limit growth in average sailing distances, reducing another source of support for vessel demand.
On the supply side, a rising number of vessel deliveries is expected to drive fleet expansion, even as ship recycling increases. Average sailing speeds are also projected to ease slightly as market conditions soften.
Black Sea Disruptions Add Further Downside Risks
Continuing disruptions to Black Sea shipping represent an additional risk to the outlook. BIMCO’s forecast assumes that Russian and Ukrainian grain volumes that cannot be shipped in 2026 will instead be exported in 2027.
If these volumes remain unavailable, dry bulk cargo growth in 2027 could be up to 0.5 percentage points lower than forecast, while grain shipment growth could weaken by as much as four percentage points.
The outlook highlights the potential for a widening gap between vessel supply and cargo demand, with geopolitical developments, trade flows and new vessel deliveries likely to remain key factors shaping dry bulk market conditions over the next two years.