Sea-Intelligence has modelled how a renewed Suez Canal transit following the Israel–Hamas ceasefire could reshape global container shipping.
Following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Sea-Intelligence has analysed the potential impact on global container shipping should carriers resume transits through the Suez Canal.
While the study does not attempt to predict when such a reopening may occur, given that Houthi forces have yet to declare a ceasefire and carriers did not return to the Suez route during previous pauses in hostilities, it provides a quantitative assessment of the effects if services were to revert.
The analysis identifies two key outcomes: a substantial release of global vessel capacity currently tied up in longer round-Africa voyages, and a short-term but significant spike in cargo arrivals into Europe.
Sea-Intelligence estimated that rerouted Asia–Europe and Asia–North America East Coast services each require around four additional vessels per round trip, absorbing considerable capacity.
The study then modelled how European imports would react under varying return-to-Suez scenarios, from an immediate resumption to phased transitions over two, four, or six weeks .
An immediate switch would dramatically shorten supply chains, effectively doubling Asian arrivals in Europe for two weeks and driving a 39 per cent surge in total port handling volumes compared to the previous record.
Even an eight-week phased return would still lift volumes by about 10 per cent above historic highs.
Given that the March 2025 peak already caused serious congestion across European ports, any transition back to the Suez route would likely strain infrastructure capacity.
Overall, Sea-Intelligence estimates that restoring the Suez transit would free approximately 2.1 million TEU of nominal capacity—around 6.5 per cent of the active global fleet.
In February, Ossama Rabiee, Chairman and Managing Director of the Suez Canal Authority, held a meeting the previous week with representatives from 23 major shipping lines and agencies.
