India’s crude oil imports from Russia during November 2025 have averaged at roughly 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d)—a record high for the month—as refiners topped up on supplies before the US sanctions came into effect.
As per global real time data and analytics provider Kpler, Russia’s largest seaborne crude oil buyer’s cargoes averaged at 1.886 mb/d so far this month.
Crude oil imports during November 2025 are higher by 17 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) and almost 6 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y). Compared to the same month in 2023, the barrels rose by 12 per cent, Kpler data shows.
India’s import of Russian grade in November 2025 is expected to be at a 5-month high, driven by increased buying before November 21, the date by which the US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil come into effect.
While India’s oil imports from Russia are likely to decrease after November 21, the decline is most likely to be temporary, allowing supply chains to reorganise, Kpler anticipates.
Shrinking barrels
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, said, “November imports have so far averaged 1.9 mb/d, but post-21 November drops will likely normalise the average closer to 1.8 mb/d.”
Urals’ discounts to Oman/Dubai on a DES India basis have increased sustaining Indian demand for Russian oil in the near-term. Actual discount might vary and depending on each importer’s contract, he explained.
“The widening Urals–Brent discount reflects a combination of sanctions pressure, weaker demand and operational strain. Recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have complicated transactions, shipping and insurance, raising risk premiums and forcing Russia to offer deeper discounts to keep barrels moving,” he pointed out.
For now, key buyers such as India, China and Turkey have scaled back purchases amid heightened compliance concerns. The G7 price cap and associated restrictions also limit Russia’s pricing flexibility, adding another layer of discounting pressure.
Compounding these market factors is the fact that repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian downstream infrastructure have disrupted refinery operations and product output, increasing crude availability domestically and amplifying the pressure to clear barrels on the export market at lower prices.
“Ultimately, it’s a classic supply-demand see-saw and the price is simply reflecting that balance,” he added.
After November 21, flows are likely to decline “noticeably” in the near term, because of the uncertainty and perceived risk related to sourcing barrels from Rosneft and Lukoil, Ritolia pointed out.
Cargoes at risk
Around 8,00,000 b/d of Russian crude oil supplies are at risk in the short-term. A noticeable drop in Russian crude flows to India in the near term is likely, particularly through December 2025 and January 2026, Kpler said.
Loadings have already slowed since October 21, though it is still early for definitive conclusions given Russia’s agility in deploying intermediaries, shadow fleets, and workaround financing, Ritolia emphasised.
“Indian refiners are pivoting to non-designated Russian entities, opaque trading channels, and alternative suppliers across the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas,” he added.
Complex logistics, ship-to-ship (STS) transfers near Mumbai, and mid-voyage diversions underscore Russia’s adaptive response.
“Unless more expansive secondary sanctions are introduced, India will continue to buy from a non-sanctioned supplier of Russian oil,” Ritolia said.
The reasons are multiple, he explained adding, that both the geopolitical and economic dimensions are essential.
“Political leaders will not want to be seen as bending down to US sanctions. At the same time, Russian barrels remain highly cost-competitive, and workarounds to maintain flows are likely to emerge. In particular, buyers may increasingly pivot to non-sanctioned Russian entities and opaque trading channels,” he added.
