Maersk shares fell to their lowest level since July on Thursday as markets reacted to growing expectations that container shipping traffic could soon resume through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, potentially easing the current capacity crunch that has propped up freight rates.
The decline followed confirmation that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire plan backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, raising hopes that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels may halt attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Since late 2023, the threat of Houthi strikes has forced major shipping lines, including Maersk, to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and tightening global capacity.
However, the Houthis have not yet commented on the ceasefire deal or signalled any policy change. In fact, the group claimed responsibility for targeting a Dutch-operated vessel just last week, adding uncertainty to the outlook.
At 0914 GMT, Maersk shares were down 2%, touching their lowest point since July 8.
“Maersk is falling due to the expectation of further drops in freight rates in connection with a higher probability of safe passage through the Red Sea,” said Sydbank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen.
Analysts caution that even if the ceasefire holds, shipping lines may wait several months before fully returning to the Suez route, seeking strong guarantees that attacks will not resume. A full restoration of traffic through the canal would significantly increase available shipping capacity and put further downward pressure on freight rates, which have already eased from their 2024 peaks, according to Sydbank and ABG Sundal Collier.
Maersk has not yet responded to requests for comment.
