Global dry bulk demand growth is expected to slow over the next three years as coal shipments decline and iron ore trade stagnates, according to BIMCO’s latest market outlook.
“We estimate that the dry bulk supply/demand balance will strengthen slightly in 2025 and gradually weaken in 2026 and 2027. Cargo demand growth is slowing, as coal shipments decline and iron ore shipments stagnate,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Coal shipments are forecast to fall 4.9% between 2025 and 2027, as renewable energy continues to expand rapidly—particularly in China, Europe, and India. At the same time, a weak global steel outlook is dampening demand for iron ore and coking coal.
Gouveia noted that softer market conditions could pressure freight rates and second-hand prices, though the impact will vary across vessel types. The capesize segment is expected to remain relatively resilient due to limited fleet growth and longer sailing distances, while panamax and supramax segments may face greater headwinds from rising deliveries amid subdued cargo growth.
Although the global economic outlook has improved since BIMCO’s previous report, it remains weaker than a year ago. China’s growth is projected to slow in 2026 and 2027, constrained by its property sector crisis and excess manufacturing capacity.
Overall, dry bulk demand is forecast to grow 1.5–2.5% in 2026 and 1–2% in 2027, supported by longer sailing distances—especially from higher South Atlantic iron ore and bauxite shipments. Growth in grain and minor bulk cargoes is also expected to partly offset the weakness in coal and iron ore trade.
On the supply side, fleet growth is projected to accelerate to 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, driven by strong deliveries in the supramax and panamax segments, with capesize deliveries rising in 2027. Although vessel recycling will gradually increase, slightly slower sailing speeds are likely to temper supply expansion.
Gouveia cautioned that geopolitical and trade risks could further impact the outlook. “Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China present a downside risk. Shipments between the two countries have already nearly halved, and further tariff increases could weaken cargo volumes and economic conditions. Another key risk is the potential return of ships to the Red Sea route—which could reduce ship demand by about 2% if vessels stop sailing around the Cape of Good Hope,” he added.
Source: BIMCO Market Analysis
