India’s merchandise exports are projected to grow 28.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to $141.8 billion in the October-December quarter (Q3) of FY27, driven by market and product diversification, new trade agreements and an improving global economic outlook, according to the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank).
The state-owned financial institution expects non-oil exports to reach $120.3 billion during the quarter, registering a growth of 21.9 per cent YoY. Exports excluding both oil and gems and jewellery are projected to increase 16.2 per cent to $106.4 billion.
India Exim Bank said the country’s export performance is expected to benefit from the diversification of its export basket and destination markets, opportunities arising from recent trade agreements, and sustained demand in major international markets.
The positive outlook is also supported by improving global and domestic growth prospects, strong investment activity and favourable exchange rate movements, the bank noted.
However, it cautioned that tighter global monetary policies and evolving international trade regulations could pose downside risks to export growth.
India’s export performance has shown strong momentum in recent months. According to data released by the Commerce Department, merchandise exports increased 23 per cent YoY to $44.4 billion in September. Meanwhile, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $30.21 billion, compared with $33 billion in the corresponding month last year.
Imports during September rose 8 per cent to $74.61 billion.
For the April-September period of FY27, India’s merchandise exports increased 18.51 per cent to $259.89 billion, while imports grew 16.31 per cent to $437.53 billion.
China emerged as India’s largest trading partner during the first half of the financial year, with bilateral merchandise trade increasing 29 per cent to $91.8 billion.
India’s exports to China rose 36 per cent YoY to $11.4 billion, while imports from the neighbouring country increased 27.8 per cent to $80.4 billion.
The latest projections underline the potential for sustained growth in India’s external trade, even as global uncertainties, changing supply chains and evolving trade policies continue to shape the international trade landscape.