Barclays on Wednesday said as against India’s exports target of $2 trillion or 15% growth by 2030, a “more realistic expectation” would be about 12% growth to $1.6 trillion from $0.75 trillion currently, which would result in a global share of about 4%. The London-headquartered bank cautioned that weak global growth in the medium term, further fractures in global supply chains and increasing protectionism could challenge the strategy by limiting the potential for trade expansion. India has been a key beneficiary of the “China+1” strategy and the tech-intensity of exports is gradually increasing, Barclays said. India’s export-complexity index rank improved to 41 in 2023 from 46 in 2001, but compared with emerging market peers such as China (ranked 25) and Mexico (23), there is clearly a long way to go, it said.
“The biggest policy push is seen in manufacturing exports, where India is slowly yet steadily moving up the value chain, and seeing greater diversification. Still, India’s largest goods exports themselves are highly reliant on imports,” said Rahul Bajoria, managing director, Barclays.
To reduce certain critical dependencies, the government has launched production-linked incentives, with “mixed success”, the report said, while highlighting that growing and sustaining exports is necessary to boost medium-term growth and economic stability.