Afghanistan-Pakistan transit trade has witnessed a dramatic decline, falling to USD 367 million in FY2025-26 from nearly USD 5 billion in FY2020-21, as Afghanistan increasingly diverts its international trade through Iranian ports and reduces its dependence on Pakistan’s transit infrastructure.
According to a report published by Dawn, transit cargo through Pakistan dropped to just 11,592 containers in FY2025-26, marking one of the sharpest declines in recent years.
The report noted that while Pakistan’s closure of its border with Afghanistan in October 2025 over security concerns affected trade flows, the downward trend had begun well before the restrictions were imposed.
Transit traffic had steadily expanded from around 60,500 containers in FY2016-17 to nearly 89,000 containers valued at USD 5 billion in FY2020-21, just before the Taliban returned to power. During that period, Afghanistan continued to rely heavily on Pakistani ports for its international trade despite strained political relations between Islamabad and the then Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani.
Following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, transit trade initially rebounded. Container volumes increased to 102,886 containers, with cargo valued at USD 6.7 billion in FY2022-23. However, the recovery proved short-lived, with volumes falling to 54,114 containers in FY2023-24 and further declining to 42,959 containers worth USD 1.36 billion in FY2024-25, before plunging to the current level in FY2025-26.
Trade analysts quoted by Dawn said the decline reflects a strategic effort by the Afghan Taliban to reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on Pakistani ports rather than being solely the result of the border closure.
The shift has reduced Pakistan’s leverage in regional transit trade but has also imposed economic costs on Afghanistan. Increased transportation and logistics expenses are being passed on to consumers, adding inflationary pressure in an economy that remains heavily dependent on imports.
The impact has been particularly severe in eastern and southern Afghanistan, where communities have traditionally relied on Pakistani goods and cross-border commerce. Reduced trade activity has also resulted in fewer employment opportunities and lower household incomes on both sides of the border.
The report further highlighted that Pakistan’s border provinces continue to face security challenges, with Islamabad accusing the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of carrying out attacks in areas along the Afghan border following the collapse of a ceasefire in November 2022.
The sharp decline in Afghanistan-Pakistan transit trade underscores the changing regional logistics landscape, as Kabul diversifies its trade routes and reshapes long-standing supply chain dependencies in South and Central Asia.