India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to an average of 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in November 2025 — the highest ever for the month — as refiners accelerated purchases ahead of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil taking effect on November 21.
According to Kpler, shipments averaged 1.886 mb/d so far in November, up 17% month-on-month and nearly 6% year-on-year, with volumes 12% higher than November 2023. Kpler expects the month’s final average to settle near 1.8 mb/d as post-sanctions flows ease.
The spike in buying was supported by wider Urals discounts against Oman/Dubai benchmarks, driven by sanctions pressure, weakened demand, logistical strain, and disruptions at Russian refineries due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
Kpler warns that about 800,000 b/d of Russian supply faces near-term risk, with Indian imports likely to dip sharply in December and January. Loadings have already slowed since late October, though Russia continues to deploy shadow fleets, STS transfers and intermediary traders to maintain flows.
Indian refiners are increasingly turning to non-designated Russian firms, opaque traders, and alternative suppliers in the Middle East, West Africa and the Americas. Despite short-term disruptions, Kpler expects India to continue sourcing non-sanctioned Russian barrels, driven by cost advantages and geopolitical considerations.
