Air cargo demand could strengthen in the fourth quarter as congestion in ocean shipping and greater clarity over tariff policies encourage shippers to move more time-sensitive and high-value goods by air.
Persistent disruptions in maritime supply chains have increased transit times and created uncertainty for exporters and importers. Some businesses may therefore turn to air freight to avoid delays, particularly for urgent shipments, electronics, pharmaceuticals, perishables and other high-value products.
Greater clarity around tariffs and trade policies could also support air cargo activity by allowing businesses to plan inventory and international shipments with greater confidence. Improved visibility on market access and costs may encourage companies to accelerate shipments ahead of potential policy changes.
The air cargo market could receive additional support from the traditional year-end peak season, when demand typically rises for consumer goods and other time-sensitive products. However, freight rates and available capacity will remain important factors influencing modal shifts from ocean to air.
Industry observers expect ocean shipping conditions, trade policy developments and inventory decisions to remain key drivers of air cargo demand through the final quarter. If maritime congestion persists and tariff uncertainty eases, airlines and air freight operators could see stronger volumes as companies prioritise speed and supply-chain reliability.