A return to Suez Canal routing could trigger a sharp and disorderly reset in Asia–Europe port connectivity, with Red Sea and East Mediterranean hubs facing sudden surges in traffic after prolonged suppression.
In issue 748 of Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, Sea-Intelligence examined the potential effects of a return to Suez Canal routing on global port connectivity.
Comparing connectivity levels in Q4 2025 with pre-Red Sea crisis growth trends from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, the analysis shows that most major ports in the Red Sea and East Mediterranean remain well below expected connectivity levels.
The data indicates that a reopening of Suez is unlikely to result in a smooth, incremental recovery. Instead, Sea-Intelligence points to the likelihood of a sharp correction in these regions as services are reinstated.
The scale of the gap is pronounced. King Abdullah Port currently records a connectivity score of 94.7, compared with a projected 361.5 — implying a recovery potential of 282 per cent.
Jeddah shows a similar pattern, with a gap of 206 per cent. Suppressed connectivity also extends into the East Mediterranean, where Ashdod remains 92.4 per cent below its projected level and Damietta by more than 50 per cent.
Sea-Intelligence suggests this imbalance could trigger a disorderly reintegration of these ports into Asia–Europe service networks, increasing the risk of terminal congestion as carriers rapidly reactivate loops.
The analysis also notes that the post-crisis Asia–Europe network is unlikely to fully revert to its 2023 configuration.
Ports such as Dammam and Colombo have recorded structural connectivity gains during the crisis, underpinned by infrastructure investment and deeper network integration.
These gains appear durable, pointing to a higher long-term baseline even after Suez routing resumes.
Recently, CMA CGM announced its FAL1, FAL3 and MEX services connecting Asia and Europe, which recently began transiting the Suez Canal again on backhaul voyages, will return to sailing around the Cape of Good Hope.