The global express and parcel delivery market continued to expand in 2025, but rising shipment volumes are not translating into stronger profitability for many carriers amid intense competition, pricing pressure and shifting international trade flows.
According to the Global Express & Parcels 2026 report by Transport Intelligence (Ti), the market grew 5.8% in 2025 to €577.3 billion (US$642.6 billion). It is projected to reach €609.1 billion in 2026 and €760.1 billion by 2030, representing an annual compound growth rate of approximately 5.7%.
However, the growth outlook varies significantly across regions, with established markets facing slower expansion and increasing pressure on revenues.
Asia-Pacific Emerges as the Growth Engine
Asia-Pacific, which overtook North America as the world’s largest regional express and parcel market in 2024, is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8% between 2026 and 2030. In comparison, North America is forecast to expand by 4.1%, while Europe’s growth is projected at 3.6%.
The region’s growing importance is underlined by its dominance in shipment volumes. Asia-Pacific accounted for 80.3% of global parcel volumes in 2025, while worldwide parcel volumes are expected to reach 432.5 billion by 2030.
India is among the markets identified by DHL Express as having above-average growth potential under its Strategy 2030, alongside Vietnam, Thailand, Poland, Mexico, Turkey and Brazil. Opportunities are being driven by supply chain diversification, nearshoring and investment in emerging markets.
Pricing Pressure Challenges Profitable Growth
Despite rising demand, express operators are struggling to convert higher volumes into sustainable earnings. Pricing competition, subdued business-to-business demand and the growing preference for lower-cost delivery options are weighing on revenue performance, particularly in mature markets.
Transport Intelligence report author Paul Chapman noted that the overall expansion of the parcel market masks increasingly divergent performances among operators.
The challenge is particularly significant for established carriers competing against lower-priced services and delivery networks developed by retailers and e-commerce companies themselves.
Business-to-consumer shipments accounted for 62.8% of global market value in 2025, with the share projected to increase to 67.3% by 2030. This growing segment offers significant opportunities but also intensifies competition over pricing, delivery costs and service expectations.
Trade Policy Reshapes International Parcel Flows
Changes in international trade rules are also influencing shipment patterns. DHL Express reported strong volumes into Europe and an increase in shipments to Latin America as retailers adjusted their strategies following the removal of the US de minimis exemption for low-value packages.
Asia-to-US business-to-consumer volumes initially declined following the policy change but subsequently recovered partially.
DHL Express said international cross-border express, particularly time-definite services, remained an important growth driver. The company also highlighted increasing demand for heavier shipments from customers who might otherwise have used freight forwarding or traditional air cargo services.
Guaranteed capacity, faster transit times, shipment visibility, reliable delivery and predictable pricing are among the factors encouraging customers to choose premium express solutions.
Consolidation and AI Reshape the Sector
The competitive environment is accelerating consolidation across the industry. Transport Intelligence tracked 136 mergers, acquisitions and investment transactions between May 2023 and August 2026.
One notable transaction was the €7.8 billion agreement by a consortium involving FedEx and Advent International to take parcel locker operator InPost private.
Technology is also becoming increasingly important. Of 34 artificial intelligence use cases identified by Ti across the express and parcel sector, 24 were already operational. AI applications are expected to support operational efficiency, improve decision-making and help carriers manage costs in an increasingly competitive market.
Outlook
The global express and parcel sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory through the end of the decade, supported by e-commerce, international trade and demand for faster deliveries. However, sustained success will depend on carriers’ ability to protect margins while maintaining service quality.
For India and other high-growth markets, expanding cross-border trade, manufacturing investment and supply chain diversification present significant opportunities. The challenge for operators will be to balance volume expansion with pricing discipline, cost efficiency and profitable service delivery.
As the market approaches a projected value of €760.1 billion by 2030, the distinction between growing shipments and generating profitable growth is likely to remain a defining issue for the global express logistics industry.