India’s merchandise exports are projected to rise 17.6% year-on-year to $131.2 billion during the July–September quarter of FY2026–27, according to a forecast by the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank). The projection points to continued momentum in India’s external trade despite geopolitical tensions and volatility in global commodity markets.
The forecast indicates that India’s exports could maintain the strong performance recorded in the first quarter of FY27. Merchandise exports reached an estimated $129.6 billion in Q1, representing growth of about 16.1% from the corresponding period a year earlier. Government data separately put Q1 merchandise exports at $129.32 billion, up 15.92% year-on-year.
Non-oil exports expected to lead growth
Exim Bank expects non-oil exports to reach $113.8 billion in Q2 FY27, marking a substantial 20.3% year-on-year increase. Non-oil and non-gems-and-jewellery exports are projected at $105.8 billion, representing growth of 20.5%.
The stronger outlook for non-oil shipments suggests that export growth is becoming increasingly broad-based, with Indian manufacturers and exporters benefiting from improving demand across overseas markets.
Trade diversification supports outlook
According to Exim Bank, increasing geographical diversification of Indian exports is one of the key factors supporting the positive outlook. Recent trade agreements and negotiations with major trading partners are also expected to create additional opportunities for Indian exporters by improving market access and reducing trade barriers.
The bank expects favourable demand conditions in partner economies, along with continued expansion in domestic manufacturing, to support export growth during the quarter.
India’s export performance has remained resilient despite uncertainties in the global economy. Government data show that merchandise exports in April–June FY27 rose to $129.32 billion from $111.57 billion a year earlier, while non-petroleum exports increased 12.44% to $106.30 billion.
Geopolitical risks remain
While the outlook is positive, Exim Bank has highlighted risks from geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity prices. Changes in energy prices, shipping costs and global trade conditions could affect export demand and the competitiveness of Indian shipments.
Exchange-rate movements could also influence export performance, while stronger domestic manufacturing capacity is expected to provide structural support.
Strong start to FY27
The Q2 forecast indicates that India could maintain double-digit merchandise export growth for another quarter. If the projection materialises, exports during the first half of FY27 would show significant momentum and strengthen the government’s broader objective of expanding India’s presence in global trade.
The combination of stronger non-oil exports, wider market access and geographical diversification is expected to remain central to India’s export strategy as businesses navigate an increasingly uncertain global trading environment.