Sea-Intelligence has reported major capacity growth on the US East and West Coast routes .
Container freight rates typically experience a seasonal decline after Chinese New Year (CNY).
However, in 2025, the drop in spot rates is notably steeper than expected from seasonality alone.
According to Sea-Intelligence, this could be driven by an intense price war between shipping lines, possibly linked to the shift to new alliances, a weakening supply/demand balance, or a mix of both factors.
February container demand data is unavailable, but supply-side data from its Trade Capacity Outlook database shows capacity trends around Chinese New Year (CNY).
For the eight weeks before CNY, Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC) capacity grew 7 per cent year-over-year (YoY), while it increased 14 per cent YoY after CNY.
Asia to North America East Coast (NAEC) saw smaller changes: -3 per cent YoY before CNY and -4 per cent YoY after.
Asia-Europe capacity grew 9 per cent YoY before CNY and surged 27 per cent YoY after.
The sharp growth in Asia-Europe capacity largely explains current spot rate weakness.
Spot rates to NAWC dropped later, reflecting a delayed capacity increase there compared to Europe.
To succeed with their announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for April, shipping lines will need to blank more sailings.
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has already announced blank sailings on some Transpacific services, but other lines have not followed suit yet.
Sea-Intelligence recently reported that global container schedule reliability reached 54.9% in February 2025, marking its highest level since May 2024.