Freight rates for tankers carrying Russia’s flagship Urals crude from its Baltic ports to India have stalled on expectations of declines in oil exports from Moscow’s western ports in November, trading and shipping sources said.
Weaker prices for global benchmarks could increase pressure on Urals freight rates, as FOB prices for the grade below the price cap of $60 per barrel could attract more Western shipowners to the market, the three sources added.
Urals prices in Russian ports have stayed below the $60 per barrel almost all the time since mid-October, LSEG data shows.
Under the terms of the cap, buyers can only use Western services such as shipping and insurance when Russian crude trades below $60 per barrel.
“Freight rates are low and they are not going up. The cost of a voyage (for a 100,000 tonne Urals cargo from Baltic) to India is still around $5.1-$5.2 million,” one trader said on condition of anonymity.
Freight rates from the Baltic ports of Primorsk or Ust-Luga to ports in western India have risen to $5.5 million this month from multi-month lows around $4.3 million earlier this year.
The cost of a one-way voyage from Russia’s Baltic ports to India, however, is still well below the $7.7 million hit in early 2024.
Russia’s crude oil exports from its three main western ports will fall by 13% in November from the previous month to 1.95 million barrels per day (bpd) from some 2.25 million in October, following the end of the refinery maintenance season, Reuters sources said last week.
The U.S., other Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia imposed the price cap in December 2022 to try to reduce Russia’s revenue from seaborne oil exports as part of sanctions prompted by its military actions in Ukraine.
