The global dry bulk shipping market is expected to remain broadly balanced in 2026 before weakening in 2027, according to the latest outlook from BIMCO. Improving macroeconomic conditions and a stronger demand outlook have prompted the organization to revise its dry bulk demand forecast for 2026 upward by 0.5 percentage points.
“We estimate that the dry bulk supply/demand balance will remain stable in 2026 and weaken in 2027,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO. “An improvement in the economic and demand outlook has led us to revise our demand forecast for 2026 up by 0.5 percentage points.”
The revised outlook follows the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision of global economic growth projections for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, supported by stimulus measures and strong investments in technology and artificial intelligence. The IMF now forecasts global GDP growth of 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, easing slightly to 3.2% in 2027.
China’s economic outlook has also improved due to higher domestic stimulus and a trade agreement with the United States, although the IMF continues to expect a gradual slowdown in China’s GDP growth over the medium term.
Freight Rates to Hold in 2026, Ease in 2027
BIMCO expects dry bulk freight rates to remain strong through 2026 as favorable market conditions carry over from 2025. However, freight rates could begin to soften in 2027 as weaker market fundamentals emerge.
“Overall, we expect that the capesize segment might continue to outperform the other segments, supported by low fleet growth and benefiting from growing sailing distances,” Gouveia noted.
Ship demand is forecast to grow by 2–3% in 2026, moderating to 1–2% in 2027. Average sailing distances are expected to increase by 0.5–1.5% annually, driven primarily by rising iron ore and bauxite shipments from the South Atlantic to Asia. Additional support to demand is coming from stronger grain and minor bulk cargo volumes, although a weak outlook for iron ore and coal is limiting overall growth.
Fleet Growth Accelerates
On the supply side, dry bulk fleet growth is projected at 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. Fleet expansion is being driven by higher vessel deliveries, particularly in the panamax and supramax segments. Ship recycling is expected to increase but will remain below historical averages. Meanwhile, sailing speeds are forecast to decline slightly in both years, especially in segments outside the capesize sector.
Red Sea Developments Pose Downside Risk
BIMCO also highlighted improving prospects for a full return of dry bulk vessels to the Red Sea, following the last Houthi attack on commercial shipping on 29 September and a ceasefire in Gaza announced in October, which has already led to a modest increase in transits.
However, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to cloud the timeline for a full resumption of normal operations.
“The potential full return of ships to the Red Sea poses a significant downside risk to the demand outlook,” said Gouveia. “We estimate that a full return would be equivalent to a 2% decrease in tonne-mile demand, due to a reduction in average sailing distances.”
