The Export-Import Bank of India on Thursday forecast India’s merchandise exports to grow 12.3% on-year at $116.7 billion in the April-June quarter of FY25, on strong economic fundamentals and sustained manufacturing and services activity.
It also expects non-oil exports to grow 10.7% in the first quarter of 2024-25 to amount $93.9 billion.
“These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed in continuation of the positive growth witnessed during the last two quarters of the previous financial year,” India Exim Bank said in a statement.
As per the statement, positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of the country’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, backed by expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand, and to some extent due to base effect.
“Growth in exports is expected to continue to witness a positive momentum in the forthcoming quarters,” it said.
However, it cautioned that the outlook is subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has predicted global goods trade to slowly recover in 2024 following a contraction last year. The volume of world merchandise trade is projected to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023, the WTO said last month but cautioned that regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
As per WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in April, India’s share of global goods exports was 1.8% in 2023 and imports at 2.8%. In digitally delivered services, India’s share rose to 6% in 2023 from 4.4% in 2019, it said.