Global bulk grain shipments recorded a strong start to 2026, rising 15% year-on-year (y/y) during the first six weeks of the year, supported by a sharp increase in soya bean and wheat exports, according to BIMCO.
Soya bean shipments surged 30% y/y, while wheat exports increased 17% y/y, driven by record harvests in the Southern Hemisphere and continued high export volumes from North America.
“During the first six weeks of 2026, global bulk grain shipments have jumped 15% y/y, supported by a 30% y/y surge in soya bean shipments and a 17% increase in wheat shipments,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Record Harvests Drive Export Momentum
Favourable weather conditions across the Southern Hemisphere have played a crucial role in boosting output.
Brazil’s ongoing soya bean harvest is expected to rise 5% y/y to a record 180 million tonnes, accounting for approximately 42% of global production, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In Argentina, wheat production has expanded 50% y/y, reaching a record level that is 26% above the previous high set in 2022. Australia’s wheat production is also estimated to have increased 8% y/y.
Meanwhile, the renewed US–China trade agreement has further strengthened export volumes. US soya bean shipments have climbed 26% y/y, alongside the resumption of sorghum exports.
Tonne Mile Demand Outpaces Cargo Growth
Grains’ tonne mile demand has risen 17% y/y so far in 2026, slightly exceeding cargo volume growth. Longer-haul shipments from South America have contributed significantly to vessel demand, as these routes typically cover greater distances compared to exports from Russia and Ukraine, where shorter-haul shipments have remained subdued.
The uptick in grain cargoes has provided much-needed support to the dry bulk market during what is typically a seasonally weak period due to softer Chinese import demand.
Panamax Segment Outperforms
The panamax segment has been the standout beneficiary. The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index has risen 69% y/y on average during the period, reflecting stronger demand fundamentals. Grains typically account for around one-third of the segment’s tonne mile demand, with shipments up 21% y/y so far this year.
Supramax vessels have also seen improved activity, with grain shipments on this segment rising 20% y/y. However, grains account for only 13% of supramax tonne mile demand, limiting their overall impact on freight rates compared to panamax vessels.
Outlook: Strong First Half, Balanced Second Half
Looking ahead, the outlook for the first half of 2026 remains positive amid strong crop production. Brazilian soya bean exports are expected to continue ramping up in the coming weeks, increasing panamax demand and intensifying competition with US exports. A potential reduction in Argentinian export taxes may further stimulate shipments.
However, the second half of 2026 presents a more balanced outlook with notable uncertainties. Wheat planting in Europe and North America suggests production could remain stable or slightly decline from a high base. Brazilian maize production is projected to fall 4% y/y.
Overall, BIMCO forecasts global grain shipments to increase by 5–6% in 2026, supported by robust Southern Hemisphere output and sustained global trade flows.
