India’s imports of Russian crude oil are expected to decline but not drop to the “near-zero” levels projected by the United States, despite sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil coming into force last week, according to industry sources.
Refiners in India are likely to continue sourcing crude from non-sanctioned Russian entities, though in smaller volumes. Officials reiterated that the government has imposed no restrictions on such purchases as long as they comply with global sanctions.
“Indian refiners are free to purchase from any source. There is no government restriction on Russian purchases as long as sanctions are not breached. Imports will fall, but not to near-zero,” a source said.
Tariff Pressure from the US
US President Donald Trump recently imposed an additional 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods — comprising a 25 per cent reciprocal levy and a 25 per cent penalty linked to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. Trump has repeatedly said India is moving toward “near-zero” imports of Russian crude.
India and the US are currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement aimed at rolling back the additional tariffs on Indian exports. India is seeking tariff reductions to enhance competitiveness against countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia, which face US duties of 19–20 per cent. Washington, however, is pushing for greater market access for American goods, including sensitive agricultural items — a difficult proposition for New Delhi.
A Chennai-based exporter said businesses were hopeful after Trump indicated that a tariff deal with India “would happen soon”, but uncertainty remains over whether the US expects India to sharply curtail Russian oil imports first.
Russia Remains Top Supplier
Russia remained India’s largest crude supplier in November, with average imports of 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this year. With refiners front-loading purchases ahead of the November 21 sanctions deadline, the month is likely to close at 1.8–1.9 million bpd, industry estimates show.
Imports are expected to soften in December and January as sanctions raise costs for Russian oil companies, their subsidiaries and associated shipping lines. These sanctioned firms account for nearly two-thirds of India’s Russian crude imports.
India sharply increased its intake of discounted Russian crude after the Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, with Russia’s share rising to nearly 40 per cent of India’s total oil imports. The US has repeatedly urged India to scale back the purchases, arguing they support Russia’s war efforts. India maintains that it is being unfairly singled out, as several Western nations continue to trade with Russia.
