India’s solar module exports fell sharply in September, dropping to their lowest level this year after heightened US trade scrutiny and tariffs curbed shipments, industry officials and analysts said.
Exports slid to around $80 million in September, down from $134 million in August, according to government data.
The US—which earlier this year accounted for more than 90% of India’s module exports—has intensified investigations into whether Chinese-made components are being routed through India. The country had already imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods during the Trump administration, adding to the challenges faced by Indian manufacturers.
Girishkumar Kadam, senior vice president at ICRA, said the investigative risks and tariff actions in the US have already begun to affect several manufacturers.
India currently has 110 GW of approved module manufacturing capacity, which ICRA expects to rise to 165 GW by March 2027.
Oversupply Concerns at Home
With exports slowing, fears of oversupply in the domestic market are mounting. India’s annual solar installations remain below the 44–45 GW required to stay on track with its 2030 renewable energy goals.
Analysts anticipate consolidation among smaller module-only manufacturers as margins shrink. Companies with integrated operations—spanning wafers, cells and modules—are expected to be better positioned to navigate the slowdown.
In August, the All India Solar Industries Association urged the Indian Banks’ Association to halt financing for new, unviable module projects to prevent future distress in the sector.
Shift Toward Cells, Wafers and Ingots
Several Indian companies are now prioritising upstream capacity additions.
Solex Energy has revised its expansion plans, reducing its proposed module capacity from 15 GW to 10 GW, while doubling its planned cell-making capacity from 5 GW to 10 GW.
“The plan to scale down the module making was a conscious one as the company did not want to add to the potential overcapacity that could lead to price wars in the future,” said Vipul Shah, a director at Solex.
Industry experts say that unless international demand revives or domestic installations accelerate meaningfully, India’s rapidly expanding manufacturing base could face prolonged pressure.
