Global container shipping markets are facing renewed uncertainty following the escalation of conflict involving Iran, which has effectively halted vessel transits through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has severed Persian Gulf ports from global container services, significantly impacting trade flows and fleet deployment, according to BIMCO.
Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, noted that since the onset of attacks on 28 February, approximately 130 container ships—representing around 1.5% of global fleet capacity—have been stranded in the Gulf. The suspension of transits has effectively immobilised nearly 3% of global container volumes, translating into a direct impact on about 5% of global ship demand.
The disruption extends beyond the Gulf, with ripple effects felt across regional trade networks. Many vessels operating in the Persian Gulf also serve ports in countries such as India and Pakistan, leading to an estimated 10% of the global container fleet being affected by the crisis.
Compounding the situation is ongoing volatility in global trade policy. A recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States declared several import tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026 unlawful, mandating refunds. In response, Donald Trump introduced a temporary 15% blanket tariff, further adding to market uncertainty.
BIMCO outlined two potential scenarios for the market outlook: one where the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and another where transits resume in the near term. Under both scenarios, global ship demand is projected to decline by around 5% in 2026, while fleet supply growth remains largely unaffected.
Despite the apparent imbalance, Rasmussen indicated that displaced vessels are unlikely to be widely redeployed across other trade lanes. Instead, they may be idled, laid up, or used as contingency capacity, limiting broader disruptions to global shipping networks.
The conflict has also heightened security concerns in adjacent waterways. Risks associated with transiting the Red Sea have increased due to Iran’s regional ties, delaying a return to normal routing via the Suez Canal and prolonging reliance on longer alternative routes.
Looking ahead, BIMCO expects a slight weakening in the global supply-demand balance through 2026 and 2027. However, if disruptions persist, liner operators could face significantly higher operating costs driven by rising oil prices, alongside reduced cargo volumes.
“The outlook remains highly uncertain,” Rasmussen said, adding that even a near-term reopening of the Strait would not immediately stabilise the market.