US dry bulk shipments to China increased 104% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2026, supported by a sharp recovery in grain trade and higher shipments of coal and petcoke, according to BIMCO.
Grain shipments recorded the strongest growth, rising 176% y/y, as lower tariffs on US agricultural products and import commitments helped revive trade between the two countries. Trade volumes had weakened significantly in 2025 amid escalating US-China trade tensions and higher tariffs.
US coal shipments to China increased 44% y/y during the first nine months of 2026, while petcoke shipments rose 33%. Despite the recovery, coal volumes remain 77% below 2024 levels. The increase in US petcoke shipments has also been supported by reduced petcoke shipments from Saudi Arabia to China.
The recovery has been particularly beneficial for the Panamax segment, which carried around 68% of US dry bulk cargo volumes to China. Supramax vessels accounted for a further 28%, benefiting especially from increased petcoke movements.
BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia said US grain shipments are expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter as soybean and maize crops are harvested and exported. US maize could see stronger demand amid disruptions to Ukrainian seaborne exports following attacks on ships in the Black Sea.
Further Growth Expected
The outlook for US-China dry bulk trade has improved following the latest round of trade negotiations, which resulted in an agreement to provide more favourable tariff treatment for around US$30 billion worth of goods in each direction.
While the timing and product-specific tariff reductions are yet to be announced, China’s Ministry of Commerce said more than 90% of the products covered would have all additional bilateral tariffs removed.
The products covered on the US side include coal and most grains, but exclude soybeans, which remain the largest US dry bulk export commodity to China. The covered commodities accounted for 16% of US dry bulk shipments to China in 2025, compared with 35% in 2024.
A significant boost could come from China’s commitment to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028. BIMCO estimates that this could approximately double US coal shipments to China, bringing volumes to within around 2 million tonnes of 2024 levels.
The development could also provide a significant boost to dry bulk tonne-mile demand, as US coal shipments to China travel distances roughly four times longer than the average distance for China’s coal imports.