India’s oil demand growth is expected to expand by 228 thousand barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 from last year, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on April 11. The demand growth is expected to be driven by diesel, supported mostly by agriculture , construction and manufacturing activities.
The oil cartel said increase in transportation activity around festivities and air travel recovery would provide additional cushion to oil demand growth in the country in 2024.
“Additionally, annual traditional festivities are expected to support transportation activity and boost gasoline demand. Finally, the ongoing air travel recovery is expected to bolster jet/kerosene demand,” OPEC said in its monthly oil market report.
In first half of the year, OPEC expects India’s oil demand to increase by an average of around 250 thousand bpd year-on-year, supported by robust economic activity.
“This (economic growth) is expected to be supported by investment and services amid an expected surge in manufacturing and construction activity brought on by government spending and an improved investment environment,” the report said.
The organisation is also optimistic of India’s oil demand growth in 2025 as it expects economic momentum to remain healthy in the next year as well. OPEC said manufacturing and business activities in the country are expected to be steady, supporting an oil demand increase of 228 thousand bpd, y-o-y.
“Diesel is expected to continue to be the main driver of demand, followed by the ‘other products’ category, mostly supported by bitumen. Similarly, demand for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstock is expected to remain healthy and support oil demand over the year,” said OPEC for India’s oil demand in 2025.
Global oil demand
For 2024, OPEC kept its global oil demand growth unchanged at 2.2 million bpd y-o-y, led by robust demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, Middle East and Other Asia.
On a quarterly basis, OPEC said global oil demand is expected to grow by around 2.0 million bpd y-o-y in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24), 2.2 million bpd y-o-y in 2Q24, 2.7 million bpd y-o-y in 3Q24 and 2.1 million bpd y-o-y in 4Q24.
“In the upcoming summer months, and focusing on transportation fuels, global demand for jet/kerosene is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and by 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 3Q24,” the report said.
“At the same time, demand for gasoline and diesel is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, respectively, in 2Q24. In 3Q24, gasoline demand is forecast to improve further and expand by 0.8 mb/d, while diesel is projected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y,” it added.
OPEC said robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance.
