New data from Vortexa shows VLCC utilisation for OPEC+ – excluding Iran and Venezuela – fell sharply during June and reached a record low earlier this month, as exports from the group, especially Saudi Arabia, fell sharply.
“The lack of sizeable alternative routes for VLCC flows, i.e. outside of OPEC+ (mostly Middle East) to Asia, is likely to keep VLCC rates under pressure,” Vortexa warned in a tanker update this week.
VLCC rates have been on the slide this month, ducking well below the $30,000 a day mark.
Analysts at Jefferies estimate Saudi seaborne crude exports averaged just 5.2m barrels per day in June, down from 6.2m barrels per day in May, and compared to their 6.8m barrels per day average since the start of 2023. Jefferies maintains VLCC rates will remain pressured for the next couple of months.
Discussing the VLCC markets earlier this week, Breakwave Advisors noted: “The freight market sentiment is quite depressed, with rates continuing to decline in both the Middle East Gulf and West Africa basins, with rates slipping by about 12% month-over-month.”