U.S. container imports are projected to rise through the end of the year as retailers prepare for a possible East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike and anticipated tariff hikes under President-elect Donald Trump. According to the National Retail Federation’s latest Global Port Tracker report, uncertainty over labor negotiations and proposed tariffs is prompting retailers to expedite shipments and redirect cargo to West Coast ports to avoid disruptions.
In October, a brief strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) led to a temporary agreement extending the contract until January 15, with wage increases on the table. Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, warned that a prolonged strike could occur if negotiations stall, sparking contingency measures among shippers. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, added that recent import spikes are largely driven by these preemptive actions rather than organic demand.
Amid this, President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs—up to 20% on all imports and even steeper tariffs on goods from China—are adding further pressure on importers to move goods quickly. In September, U.S. ports handled 2.29 million TEUs, a 12.8% year-over-year increase, with continued growth expected in November and December. Total TEUs for 2024 are forecasted to reach 25.3 million, a 13.6% rise over 2023.
Looking into 2025, January’s imports are forecast at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5% year-over-year, with a dip expected in February due to Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia.