A reported trade agreement between the United States and India could significantly disrupt Russian oil exports, potentially reducing them by as much as 25%, according to BIMCO, the world’s largest international shipping association.
In its latest Shipping Number of the Week, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen said India accounted for 33% of its total seaborne oil imports from Russia in 2025, representing around 25% of Russia’s total seaborne oil exports. A proposed US-India trade deal, announced by US President Donald Trump, could bring that trade to an end.
President Trump said the agreement would involve sharp reciprocal tariff reductions, with US tariffs on Indian goods falling from 50% to 18% and Indian tariffs on US goods potentially dropping to zero. While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet confirmed the tariff changes, Trump also claimed that India had committed to ending oil purchases from Russia and substantially increasing imports of US energy and goods. India has not publicly confirmed this aspect of the deal.
Rasmussen noted that Russian oil exports to India have already declined sharply. During the first five weeks of 2026, shipments fell 34% year-on-year, a trend he attributed partly to European Union restrictions on the purchase, import and transfer of oil products refined from Russian crude.
“While it is too early to conclude that the Russia–India oil trade will stop entirely, the combination of EU restrictions and a US-India agreement could significantly reduce volumes,” Rasmussen said.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nearly two-thirds of India’s crude oil and oil product imports came from the Persian Gulf. By 2025, that share had dropped to 45%, largely due to increased Russian supplies. BIMCO expects Indian importers to turn back to the Persian Gulf to replace any shortfall, while Trump has also indicated that India could raise oil purchases from the US and possibly Venezuela.
In shipping terms, the Russia–India oil trade accounted for 0.5% of global clean tanker tonne-miles and 4.7% of dirty tanker tonne-miles in 2025. BIMCO warned that a sharp reduction or halt in this trade could have a pronounced impact on the dirty tanker market, with increased demand for the mainstream fleet at the expense of the parallel fleet.
“While Russia is likely to seek alternative buyers, even at higher discounts, we do not expect its overall oil exports to fall by the same magnitude,” Rasmussen said.
